Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.622892 1.839966 2.071330 2.335841 2.629429 2.944840 3.308873
2024-12-15 1.385821 1.695751 2.047892 2.475867 2.980087 3.553320 4.252301
2024-12-22 1.167340 1.536192 1.981348 2.553960 3.266338 4.118433 5.209251
2024-12-29 1.034365 1.458590 2.000476 2.735131 3.695629 4.898186 6.505544
2025-01-05 0.853955 1.292565 1.886046 2.734056 3.898324 5.422135 7.545039
2025-01-12 0.721967 1.170715 1.812553 2.776542 4.161995 6.051123 8.784421
2025-01-19 0.603802 1.048800 1.721148 2.781226 4.373262 6.630175 10.013727
2025-01-26 0.532401 0.985935 1.706723 2.894530 4.750263 7.473478 11.685747
2025-02-02 0.466087 0.919629 1.677081 2.979895 5.093714 8.298838 13.404175
2025-02-09 0.402467 0.846277 1.624938 3.021708 5.372661 9.051217 15.076869
2025-02-16 0.350544 0.784348 1.582624 3.073241 5.670659 9.856266 16.892926
2025-02-23 0.292667 0.699408 1.486280 3.018042 5.783743 10.375812 18.300650
2025-03-02 0.238051 0.611594 1.374659 2.927976 5.840478 10.830776 19.681459
2025-03-09 0.204060 0.560730 1.326680 2.950390 6.099733 11.648785 21.730586
2025-03-16 0.171392 0.505128 1.259716 2.926734 6.272231 12.333678 23.612736
2025-03-23 0.153999 0.482636 1.259689 3.038248 6.712564 13.528239 26.467182
2025-03-30 0.126835 0.427699 1.177595 2.966322 6.787295 14.068430 28.209291
2025-04-06 0.107846 0.389736 1.127824 2.956797 6.985020 14.850817 30.443777
2025-04-13 0.090500 0.351324 1.069523 2.919097 7.119233 15.521999 32.520146
2025-04-20 0.081204 0.335019 1.064160 3.003080 7.518629 16.733616 35.684878
2025-04-27 0.072122 0.316685 1.050059 3.063989 7.873551 17.883298 38.806100
2025-05-04 0.062858 0.294704 1.021694 3.085375 8.141933 18.877854 41.689941
2025-05-11 0.055284 0.276346 1.000111 3.120888 8.445643 19.965999 44.825366